Post by Padres GM on Feb 4, 2010 23:41:46 GMT -5
PADRES TOP PROSPECTS 2010
Jaff Decker*, Age 20.1, LF
Any time a teenager puts up a 442 OBP in the Mid West League, you know you have a special bat on your hands. Decker's 2009 season was so special that he was the first teenager to lead the Mid West League in OPS since Prince Fielder did it in 2003. His detractors point to his lack of athleticism and bad body, and while these are concerns, I think they are overblown. He has stolen 19 bases as a pro, so it's not like he is some kind of base clogger. I think he could be a 20-25 homerun, middle of the order hitter, who consistently posts OBPs of 390. It wouldn't surprise me to see the Padres start Decker in AA. Grade B+
Donavan Tate, Age 19.6, CF
Maybe the best athlete in the 2009 draft, Tate is a potential 5-tool star. The Padres were able to sign him for a club record $6.25 million dollar bonus. Tate is raw, so the Padres will need to develop him. The Mike Cameron comparison is almost a cliche at this point, but I think it is actually a fitting one in this case. Grade B+
Simon Castro, Age 22.0, RHS
Older than most Latin prospects pitching in the Mid West League, Castro put up an extremely impressive stat line in 2009. He has always had impressive stuff- including a plus slider and a fastball that reaches 95-96- but he improved his delivery in 2009, allowing him to throw more strikes. At 6'5" 211 there is still room for some growth. I might not be as bullish on Castro as many. His GO/AO ratio of 0.81 has me worried that he will be hurt by the homerun as he climbs the organizational ladder. He is probably advanced enough to move to AA in 2010. I think he is a 3rd starter long-term. Grade B+
Michael Saunders Age 22, OF.
One of the very few prospects with true 30/30 ability. He has the skills to be a .300 hitter to boot. Judging by his brief major league debut, however, I am a bit leery of his ability to fully transition, leading me to believe that he will not live up to every bit of his potential. But he has a legit chance at stardom, and therefore he is the best that Seattle has to offer. Grade B
Wynn Pelzer, Age 23.9, RHS
Under-the-radar prospect who strikes me as a solid middle-of-the-rotation option. He gets a lot of ground balls with his heavy fastball, and has a plus slider. He needs to improve his change to avoid a move to the pen. Grade B
James Darnell, Age 23.3, 3B
Tough to put up better numbers than Darnell did in 2009, although it is important to note that he was old for the Mid West League and then played in the hitter-friendly California League. Scouts like his swing and bat speed, so there is no reason to think the bat won't play at higher levels. The question is whether Darnell will be able to stick at 3rd. He made 30 errors there in 117 games, despite having the tools to be passable. Darnell profiles as an offensive regular at third. Grade B
Michael Burgess Age 21, RF,
A very strong athlete who could make many prospect lists as a power pitcher (his fastball is 92mph), Burgess is more likely to develop as a corner outfield bat. He's a bit young, but since Washington is in hardcore rebuilding mode, he could contribute sooner than he might on other teams. Right now he's all power and no discipline, but that power is special enough -- Jim Bowden called it 'thunderous' -- that he's worth keeping an eye on. Grade B
Rex Brothers Age 22, LHS,
A strikeout machine with plus movement and superior velocity, lefthander Rex Brothers gets scant attention in a system with so many live lefty arms. But he should: the Shelbyville (TN) native chewed up A-ball in 2009, striking out 28 while walking only 8 in 22 innings. And lest you worry about the small sample size, that's in line with his NCAA performance, where over three seasons he struck out 322 college hitters over 286 innings while walking only 142 of them. He's a bit behind some of the other Rockies talent developmentally, but he's definitely got the stuff to be a front-line starter someday. Grade B
Aaron Poreda, Age 23.6,
LHR The main return in the Jake Peavy deal, Poreda was a disaster in San Diego. His mechanics got out of whack, and he walked an astounding 10.2 batters per nine in 32.2 AAA innings for the Padres. Despite his struggles, the talent is there. He has a big fastball and his slider will flash plus. I think the ship has sailed as him as a starter, but I see no reason not to think he will be a valuable reliever. Grade B-
Edinson Rincon, Age 19.8, 3B/LF
The bat looks great- power potential, a patient approach, and good results as a teenager in the North West League. However, he has as much of a chance as playing third as Jesus Montero does of catching. It's tough not to like the bat, but defensive questions preclude a higher grade. Grade B-
Adys Portillo, Age 18.3, RHS (SD)-
Portillo's $2 million dollar bonus set a record for a Venezuelan pitcher. That bonus set expectations very high for Portillo's debut, and the results simply were not there. Despite his struggles, I still remain optimistic about his future. He will be only 18 the entire 2010 season, and the stuff that had everyone so excited heading into 2009 is still there. Grade B-
Rymer Liriano, Age 18.10, RF
Liriano has the potential to become a true impact player. He has a cannon for an arm. While he can play center in a pinch, he is better suited for right. At the plate, he has tremendous raw power and bat speed. His potential prompted his rookie league manager to proclaim that "[Liriano] has the biggest upside that I've seen in a Latin kid in my years of managing". Despite the potential, there are concerns about Liriano's discipline and ability to hit breaking balls. Grade C+
Sawyer Carroll Age 23 OF
Hit .317/.413/.489 with 19 steals and 80 walks between the Midwest League, Cal League, and Texas League, but no one seems to have noticed. Production didn't drop at San Antonio.Grade C+:
Drew Cumberland* Age 21.3, SS/2B
A star running back and DB in high school, Cumberland is an exceptional athlete. He receives 70 speed grades, and rave reviews for his patient approach. While he isn't a homerun threat, he stings the balls in the gaps and has drawn Brian Roberts comparisons. He has the actions and range to play short, but his arm is light so a move to second base may be in his future. Cumberland has struggled to stay healthy, but if he can in 2010 I look for him to have a big year. Grade C+
Kellen Kulbacki, OF,
Gets an injury mulligan, but he needs a fast start in '10 to quiet the persistent doubters.Grade C+
Brett Wallach, Age 21.4, RHS
The son of a former big leaguer, it looks that Brett will be following in his fathers footsteps. He is just filling out his 6-foot-3 frame, and the Dodgers believe he will add velocity to his 88-89 mph fastball. His off-speed stuff is advanced, and his change should be a plus pitch in the future. I like Wallach as a sleeper, and think there is a good chance he becomes a solid mid-rotation starter. Grade C+
Jonathan Galvez Age 19.3, 2B
Signed for $750,000 in 2007, Galvez put together a very strong US debut in 2009. He has a quick bat giving him impressive power potential for a middle infielder, and he employes an advanced approach at the plate. However, scouts worry about his defense. His arm will likely relegate him to second, and some scouts questioned his effort in the field. If he can clean up his defense he could shoot up this list in 2010. Grade C+
Cory Luebke Age 25.1, LHS
11-4 with a 2.78 ERA and a shimmering 1.10 WHIP at two levels of play in 2009. His 112-32 strikeout to walk ratio is another number worth some yellow highlighter. A tall, lanky pitcher who lives in the low 90s with great two-seam movement, he leans on a reasonable change and a real plus slider as his strikeout pitch. He also shows off one of the best pickoff moves to first base seen in the minors since the days Andy Pettitte pitched at Columbus. He lacks some of the explosive upside of other Padre starters, but his mix of quality pitches and overall polish probably put him closer to the Bigs. He'll open 2010 in AA ball but could see at least a look-see start in San Diego before the end of the year. Grade C+
Jeremy Hefner, RHP,
Another guy with good components.Grade C+:
(WORK IN PROGRESS)
Jaff Decker*, Age 20.1, LF
Any time a teenager puts up a 442 OBP in the Mid West League, you know you have a special bat on your hands. Decker's 2009 season was so special that he was the first teenager to lead the Mid West League in OPS since Prince Fielder did it in 2003. His detractors point to his lack of athleticism and bad body, and while these are concerns, I think they are overblown. He has stolen 19 bases as a pro, so it's not like he is some kind of base clogger. I think he could be a 20-25 homerun, middle of the order hitter, who consistently posts OBPs of 390. It wouldn't surprise me to see the Padres start Decker in AA. Grade B+
Donavan Tate, Age 19.6, CF
Maybe the best athlete in the 2009 draft, Tate is a potential 5-tool star. The Padres were able to sign him for a club record $6.25 million dollar bonus. Tate is raw, so the Padres will need to develop him. The Mike Cameron comparison is almost a cliche at this point, but I think it is actually a fitting one in this case. Grade B+
Simon Castro, Age 22.0, RHS
Older than most Latin prospects pitching in the Mid West League, Castro put up an extremely impressive stat line in 2009. He has always had impressive stuff- including a plus slider and a fastball that reaches 95-96- but he improved his delivery in 2009, allowing him to throw more strikes. At 6'5" 211 there is still room for some growth. I might not be as bullish on Castro as many. His GO/AO ratio of 0.81 has me worried that he will be hurt by the homerun as he climbs the organizational ladder. He is probably advanced enough to move to AA in 2010. I think he is a 3rd starter long-term. Grade B+
Michael Saunders Age 22, OF.
One of the very few prospects with true 30/30 ability. He has the skills to be a .300 hitter to boot. Judging by his brief major league debut, however, I am a bit leery of his ability to fully transition, leading me to believe that he will not live up to every bit of his potential. But he has a legit chance at stardom, and therefore he is the best that Seattle has to offer. Grade B
Wynn Pelzer, Age 23.9, RHS
Under-the-radar prospect who strikes me as a solid middle-of-the-rotation option. He gets a lot of ground balls with his heavy fastball, and has a plus slider. He needs to improve his change to avoid a move to the pen. Grade B
James Darnell, Age 23.3, 3B
Tough to put up better numbers than Darnell did in 2009, although it is important to note that he was old for the Mid West League and then played in the hitter-friendly California League. Scouts like his swing and bat speed, so there is no reason to think the bat won't play at higher levels. The question is whether Darnell will be able to stick at 3rd. He made 30 errors there in 117 games, despite having the tools to be passable. Darnell profiles as an offensive regular at third. Grade B
Michael Burgess Age 21, RF,
A very strong athlete who could make many prospect lists as a power pitcher (his fastball is 92mph), Burgess is more likely to develop as a corner outfield bat. He's a bit young, but since Washington is in hardcore rebuilding mode, he could contribute sooner than he might on other teams. Right now he's all power and no discipline, but that power is special enough -- Jim Bowden called it 'thunderous' -- that he's worth keeping an eye on. Grade B
Rex Brothers Age 22, LHS,
A strikeout machine with plus movement and superior velocity, lefthander Rex Brothers gets scant attention in a system with so many live lefty arms. But he should: the Shelbyville (TN) native chewed up A-ball in 2009, striking out 28 while walking only 8 in 22 innings. And lest you worry about the small sample size, that's in line with his NCAA performance, where over three seasons he struck out 322 college hitters over 286 innings while walking only 142 of them. He's a bit behind some of the other Rockies talent developmentally, but he's definitely got the stuff to be a front-line starter someday. Grade B
Aaron Poreda, Age 23.6,
LHR The main return in the Jake Peavy deal, Poreda was a disaster in San Diego. His mechanics got out of whack, and he walked an astounding 10.2 batters per nine in 32.2 AAA innings for the Padres. Despite his struggles, the talent is there. He has a big fastball and his slider will flash plus. I think the ship has sailed as him as a starter, but I see no reason not to think he will be a valuable reliever. Grade B-
Edinson Rincon, Age 19.8, 3B/LF
The bat looks great- power potential, a patient approach, and good results as a teenager in the North West League. However, he has as much of a chance as playing third as Jesus Montero does of catching. It's tough not to like the bat, but defensive questions preclude a higher grade. Grade B-
Adys Portillo, Age 18.3, RHS (SD)-
Portillo's $2 million dollar bonus set a record for a Venezuelan pitcher. That bonus set expectations very high for Portillo's debut, and the results simply were not there. Despite his struggles, I still remain optimistic about his future. He will be only 18 the entire 2010 season, and the stuff that had everyone so excited heading into 2009 is still there. Grade B-
Rymer Liriano, Age 18.10, RF
Liriano has the potential to become a true impact player. He has a cannon for an arm. While he can play center in a pinch, he is better suited for right. At the plate, he has tremendous raw power and bat speed. His potential prompted his rookie league manager to proclaim that "[Liriano] has the biggest upside that I've seen in a Latin kid in my years of managing". Despite the potential, there are concerns about Liriano's discipline and ability to hit breaking balls. Grade C+
Sawyer Carroll Age 23 OF
Hit .317/.413/.489 with 19 steals and 80 walks between the Midwest League, Cal League, and Texas League, but no one seems to have noticed. Production didn't drop at San Antonio.Grade C+:
Drew Cumberland* Age 21.3, SS/2B
A star running back and DB in high school, Cumberland is an exceptional athlete. He receives 70 speed grades, and rave reviews for his patient approach. While he isn't a homerun threat, he stings the balls in the gaps and has drawn Brian Roberts comparisons. He has the actions and range to play short, but his arm is light so a move to second base may be in his future. Cumberland has struggled to stay healthy, but if he can in 2010 I look for him to have a big year. Grade C+
Kellen Kulbacki, OF,
Gets an injury mulligan, but he needs a fast start in '10 to quiet the persistent doubters.Grade C+
Brett Wallach, Age 21.4, RHS
The son of a former big leaguer, it looks that Brett will be following in his fathers footsteps. He is just filling out his 6-foot-3 frame, and the Dodgers believe he will add velocity to his 88-89 mph fastball. His off-speed stuff is advanced, and his change should be a plus pitch in the future. I like Wallach as a sleeper, and think there is a good chance he becomes a solid mid-rotation starter. Grade C+
Jonathan Galvez Age 19.3, 2B
Signed for $750,000 in 2007, Galvez put together a very strong US debut in 2009. He has a quick bat giving him impressive power potential for a middle infielder, and he employes an advanced approach at the plate. However, scouts worry about his defense. His arm will likely relegate him to second, and some scouts questioned his effort in the field. If he can clean up his defense he could shoot up this list in 2010. Grade C+
Cory Luebke Age 25.1, LHS
11-4 with a 2.78 ERA and a shimmering 1.10 WHIP at two levels of play in 2009. His 112-32 strikeout to walk ratio is another number worth some yellow highlighter. A tall, lanky pitcher who lives in the low 90s with great two-seam movement, he leans on a reasonable change and a real plus slider as his strikeout pitch. He also shows off one of the best pickoff moves to first base seen in the minors since the days Andy Pettitte pitched at Columbus. He lacks some of the explosive upside of other Padre starters, but his mix of quality pitches and overall polish probably put him closer to the Bigs. He'll open 2010 in AA ball but could see at least a look-see start in San Diego before the end of the year. Grade C+
Jeremy Hefner, RHP,
Another guy with good components.Grade C+:
(WORK IN PROGRESS)